Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MINN +350 MD -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +35 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -10.3 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -10.9 (-24.1) | 131.8 (-4.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -9.8 (-25.2) | 130.8 (-3.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -10.9 (-24.1) | 130.6 (-3.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -9.8 (-25.2) | 132.1 (-5.1) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MD 67 – 62 MINN |
| Jan 13, 2025 | MD 77 – 71 MINN |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MINN 65 – 62 MD |
| Mar 10, 2023 | MD 70 – 54 MINN |
| Feb 23, 2023 | MD 88 – 70 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 2-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 63.5 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#218) | 11.5 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#212) | 2.03 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#227) | 2.54 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#251) | 0.594 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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