Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MD -1600 MINN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +18 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MD -19.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -17.9 (+0.1) | 133.4 (+24.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -14.6 (+3.4) | 136.5 (+21.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -16.6 (+1.4) | 133.3 (+24.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -18.0 (-0.0) | 133.0 (+25.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MD 67 – 62 MINN |
| Jan 13, 2025 | MD 77 – 71 MINN |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MINN 65 – 62 MD |
| Mar 10, 2023 | MD 70 – 54 MINN |
| Feb 5, 2023 | MD 81 – 46 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-17 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-11 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#26) | -3.2 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#40) | -0.61 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#31) | -0.92 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#42) | 0.446 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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