Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MINN -125 MD +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -6.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -2.4 (+0.6) | 137.2 (-10.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -5.7 (-2.7) | 134.7 (-7.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -5.9 (-2.9) | 135.8 (-8.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -4.8 (-1.8) | 136.1 (-9.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MD 67 – 62 MINN |
| Jan 13, 2025 | MD 77 – 71 MINN |
| Mar 10, 2023 | MD 70 – 54 MINN |
| Feb 23, 2023 | MD 88 – 70 MINN |
| Feb 5, 2023 | MD 81 – 46 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#77) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#87) | 0.38 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#87) | 0.56 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#139) | 0.494 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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