Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -250 LAS +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -7.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -5.2 (-13.2) | 145.6 (-7.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -5.5 (-13.5) | 146.2 (-8.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -6.0 (-14.0) | 143.7 (-5.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -5.6 (-13.6) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#186) | -4.8 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#202) | -0.65 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#198) | -1.18 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#193) | 0.475 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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