Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CSU +145 USU -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +9 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -4.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.8 (-5.2) | 151.6 (+15.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.2 (-4.8) | 149.1 (+17.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -4.4 (-4.6) | 152.2 (+14.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -4.3 (-4.7) | 152.4 (+14.6) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#118) | 11.0 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#164) | 2.11 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#168) | 2.71 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#162) | 0.624 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 17.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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