Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CSU +220 USU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -5.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -4.5 (+0.5) | 144.6 (-18.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.4 (-0.6) | 142.4 (-16.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.4 (-0.6) | 145.1 (-19.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.0 (-1.0) | 147.0 (-21.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CSU 75 – 55 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#93) | 15.1 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#99) | 2.12 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#91) | 2.53 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#105) | 0.617 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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