Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -250 USU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +20 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -3.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -4.1 (+15.9) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -2.6 (+17.4) | 140.6 (-10.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.1 (+15.9) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -3.9 (+16.1) | 143.1 (-13.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#39) | 12.3 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#25) | 2.74 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#21) | 2.83 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#14) | 0.639 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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