Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | USU -600 CSU +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +42 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | USU -7.5 (+34.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.2 (+35.8) | 144.0 (+14.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.5 (+35.5) | 141.0 (+17.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.7 (+35.3) | 145.8 (+12.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.8 (+36.2) | 145.8 (+12.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CSU 75 – 55 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#34) | 10.0 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#40) | 1.46 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#47) | 2.87 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#25) | 0.552 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 53.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 45.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 64.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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