Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -125 USU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +27 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | USU -0.6 (+27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -2.3 (+24.7) | 148.7 (+10.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -1.5 (+25.5) | 146.0 (+13.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.6 (+25.4) | 149.7 (+9.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -1.9 (+25.1) | 151.0 (+8.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CSU 75 – 55 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#64) | 12.9 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#62) | 2.68 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#65) | 3.18 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#65) | 0.610 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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