Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -115 USU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | USU -1.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.9 (+12.9) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -1.6 (+12.6) | 140.8 (+14.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.5 (+12.5) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.2 (+14.2) | 143.6 (+11.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CSU 75 – 55 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#56) | 12.6 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#51) | 2.57 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#52) | 2.99 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#51) | 0.606 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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