Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | USU -280 CSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | USU -7.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -8.4 (-0.4) | 143.9 (+34.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.6 (+0.4) | 146.7 (+31.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -7.5 (+0.5) | 145.8 (+32.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.6 (+0.4) | 145.8 (+32.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CSU 75 – 55 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 16-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#49) | 7.4 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#23) | 1.45 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#31) | 1.80 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#23) | 0.545 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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