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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–33 on winners spread MAE 8.3 118 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Iona @ Siena	-2.6	142.9	38%	53–70	✗
Manhattan @ Niagara	+5.5	130.2	71%	62–68	✓
Rider @ Marist	-2.1	132.0	42%	68–52	✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson	-0.7	143.9	46%	74–70	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris	+1.4	146.3	59%	77–85	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State	+5.4	139.8	73%	74–79	✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	+5.5	144.4	71%	75–91	✓
Buffalo @ Kent State	+11.9	150.1	88%	68–74	✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State	+10.6	157.5	86%	73–77	✓
Air Force @ New Mexico	+12.6	147.2	87%	73–81	✓
Boston College @ Virginia	+14.9	133.3	88%	57–76	✓
Auburn @ West Virginia	+5.8	141.6	70%	77–80	✓
Temple @ UCF	+7.9	139.5	78%	77–70	✗
Louisville @ Notre Dame	+10.0	141.5	85%	62–76	✓
UMBC @ Vermont	+4.8	144.4	72%	68–74	✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern	+11.7	132.9	87%	61–81	✓
Northeastern @ Delaware	+5.3	136.9	73%	78–81	✓
Xavier @ Creighton	+5.5	158.0	71%	67–84	✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland	-1.1	130.8	45%	66–80	✗
Holy Cross @ Army	+8.5	141.8	81%	55–66	✓
NC State @ Wake Forest	+1.7	157.9	58%	79–77	✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire	-2.3	140.8	42%	65–69	✗
Western Carolina @ VMI	-3.4	142.6	31%	71–65	✓
Mercer @ The Citadel	+0.3	136.4	53%	74–65	✗
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut	+0.2	138.8	51%	74–88	✓
Stetson @ Queens University	+1.2	156.9	61%	65–71	✓
Alabama @ Oklahoma	-4.9	147.0	27%	69–93	✗
Iowa State @ Missouri	-0.6	143.6	43%	61–78	✗
Marquette @ DePaul	-9.6	157.9	18%	89–69	✓
Lafayette @ Colgate	+8.4	135.1	82%	57–69	✓
Missouri State @ Murray State	+1.4	135.9	56%	71–74	✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State	+4.7	144.4	69%	71–79	✓
Bryant @ Binghamton	-5.1	152.1	29%	67–84	✗
American University @ Navy	+2.7	132.3	64%	73–69	✗
Harvard @ Pennsylvania	+1.5	136.7	60%	68–83	✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth	+7.6	142.2	80%	73–83	✓
Brown @ Cornell	+10.0	154.2	84%	73–80	✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island	+4.5	138.9	69%	70–72	✓
George Washington @ Fordham	+3.3	147.9	69%	70–85	✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate	-4.4	134.7	32%	55–52	✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian	-1.0	135.8	41%	76–58	✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb	+7.5	142.5	80%	58–86	✓
UNC Asheville @ Campbell	+0.4	137.7	48%	78–65	✗
Samford @ Wofford	-0.3	148.0	49%	77–85	✗
Texas Tech @ LSU	-1.8	134.7	46%	76–68	✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo	+10.9	160.3	86%	77–91	✓
Ohio @ Akron	+6.0	142.8	76%	77–83	✓
Sacred Heart @ Stonehill	+1.8	138.8	59%	81–82	✓
Monmouth @ North Carolina A&T	+11.5	140.9	87%	79–64	✗
Cincinnati @ Houston	+13.9	132.8	87%	69–75	✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech	-7.8	136.8	23%	86–43	✓
UAB @ Rice	-1.0	155.8	49%	70–52	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	-0.3	137.9	49%	78–71	✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss	+10.7	133.7	85%	58–67	✓
South Dakota State @ Western Illinois	-0.4	137.2	51%	73–81	✗
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State	+3.7	141.7	66%	66–83	✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona	+1.2	150.3	56%	73–83	✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin	-1.1	131.4	46%	61–51	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	-1.8	138.7	46%	50–55	✗
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+4.2	156.1	69%	74–69	✗
TCU @ Mississippi State	-1.9	130.1	37%	74–81	✗
Arkansas @ Baylor	+7.9	147.5	78%	64–67	✓
Hofstra @ Charleston	+6.9	145.9	77%	85–81	✗
Miami @ Pittsburgh	+1.6	147.8	56%	68–71	✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic	+14.8	143.5	88%	63–70	✓
Jackson State @ Grambling	+8.6	137.4	82%	66–78	✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+6.7	148.7	78%	75–94	✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTSA	-5.1	145.1	30%	66–55	✓
Seton Hall @ Butler	+0.7	131.7	52%	70–49	✗
Richmond @ Dayton	+6.7	130.7	74%	60–86	✓
Duquesne @ Massachusetts	+1.9	145.8	60%	79–87	✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley	+10.5	147.3	85%	72–77	✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State	+0.5	145.4	51%	73–64	✗
Troy @ South Alabama	+0.1	136.1	51%	60–77	✓
UL Monroe @ James Madison	+12.0	147.9	86%	45–58	✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina	-2.1	142.0	43%	60–59	✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky	+2.3	137.1	65%	75–74	✗
William & Mary @ Towson	+12.3	136.6	86%	73–92	✓
Drexel @ Elon	-7.1	133.4	22%	58–72	✗
Stony Brook @ Hampton	+0.2	136.1	47%	71–66	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside	+8.0	142.0	82%	65–72	✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State	+2.4	155.0	65%	72–75	✓
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas	-4.7	139.0	27%	74–64	✓
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M	-2.7	129.8	36%	61–56	✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman	-0.1	141.0	46%	62–64	✗
Morgan State @ Delaware State	-5.4	143.0	27%	62–64	✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State	+12.4	155.7	88%	68–82	✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+9.2	150.2	84%	72–83	✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State	+13.8	144.6	88%	65–80	✓
Nebraska @ Maryland	+8.2	131.3	78%	63–82	✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	-0.3	145.9	51%	87–69	✓
Arkansas State @ App State	+9.7	132.0	83%	51–63	✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin	+1.8	154.3	58%	83–86	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois	-2.9	148.6	38%	79–68	✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech	+6.0	148.4	75%	91–89	✗
Clemson @ Florida State	-5.2	144.4	27%	82–81	✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's	+2.8	122.0	61%	73–62	✗
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word	-2.5	144.0	38%	67–69	✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara	+10.9	157.9	86%	95–89	✗
Idaho State @ Idaho	+1.6	142.0	61%	95–91	✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington	+5.9	137.5	76%	71–75	✓
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State	+5.8	145.4	76%	72–85	✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville State	+3.9	133.8	69%	53–70	✓
Arizona @ Washington	-5.8	153.1	29%	95–72	✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M	+8.6	147.6	82%	76–77	✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans	-4.5	158.2	29%	80–64	✓
Seattle U @ Stephen F. Austin	+0.7	140.5	56%	65–79	✓
Texas @ Tennessee	+8.8	135.9	77%	71–82	✓
Florida @ Kansas State	+7.3	143.4	75%	50–64	✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard	+1.0	143.5	58%	67–71	✓
UTEP @ North Texas	+8.5	123.2	79%	42–52	✓
South Carolina @ Georgia	+10.5	134.3	86%	78–81	✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU	+11.3	132.6	84%	61–58	✗
Charleston Southern @ Longwood	+8.4	144.1	82%	75–63	✗
North Florida @ North Alabama	+2.6	155.1	65%	78–91	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern	+1.3	136.1	59%	89–74	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+9.3	131.9	82%	72–88	✓
Alcorn State @ Southern	+5.0	147.3	68%	68–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.