We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–16 on winners spread MAE 7.2 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic +10.5 137.5 84% 67–85 ✓
SMU @ Memphis +12.9 150.9 88% 84–99 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -0.0 144.9 49% 69–78 ✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's -0.4 127.7 47% 63–60 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan State +2.9 147.6 62% 61–63 ✓
Longwood @ Radford +2.4 134.2 64% 59–63 ✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart +11.8 146.4 87% 74–70 ✗
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut +1.7 123.0 56% 64–61 ✗
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.4 154.7 60% 82–87 ✓
UL Monroe @ Marshall +15.2 145.6 90% 86–82 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +13.8 155.4 87% 69–75 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Illinois +6.3 142.6 75% 72–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech -2.4 141.2 40% 68–80 ✗
Little Rock @ Morehead State +4.9 146.0 72% 72–76 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +9.5 144.9 84% 59–66 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +0.5 155.5 52% 86–93 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +15.0 132.9 90% 50–68 ✓
Delaware @ Hampton -7.2 144.1 23% 66–67 ✗
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -2.5 139.0 40% 55–68 ✗
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington +14.8 130.7 90% 49–52 ✓
Hofstra @ Elon -12.2 137.7 15% 82–65 ✓
Stony Brook @ William & Mary +3.6 132.2 65% 74–77 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +8.4 133.7 83% 63–72 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University +0.1 147.6 54% 82–84 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama -2.6 136.9 40% 62–80 ✗
Stetson @ Liberty +11.6 139.5 84% 45–74 ✓
Austin Peay @ Kennesaw State +10.2 140.4 86% 57–84 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +0.7 143.4 55% 63–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +1.9 143.3 64% 72–74 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -5.3 143.9 32% 75–73 ✓
Troy @ Louisiana +3.4 143.9 70% 57–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss +15.4 134.8 89% 57–73 ✓
Old Dominion @ South Alabama +1.6 137.0 58% 66–64 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Texas State +3.0 128.6 63% 67–70 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas +0.6 141.6 55% 54–60 ✓
Omaha @ Kansas City +4.7 136.6 72% 61–64 ✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts +16.7 157.1 90% 61–102 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas -1.4 156.9 44% 85–88 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.4 147.2 65% 86–96 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Lamar -4.4 141.4 31% 62–57 ✓
Seattle U @ Sam Houston +6.3 139.1 72% 40–55 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +5.8 151.2 73% 75–92 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word +1.2 143.9 53% 65–70 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +9.6 157.0 84% 87–92 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan -5.0 136.5 27% 75–70 ✓
UCLA @ USC -4.0 134.7 33% 64–77 ✗
Colorado @ Oregon +3.8 139.9 68% 69–75 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +14.2 127.1 89% 59–63 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UAB +8.8 152.3 80% 59–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +13.2 154.8 88% 63–82 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah +0.8 153.6 53% 67–79 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana +10.2 146.4 85% 74–78 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho +0.2 136.6 50% 73–65 ✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +8.8 142.7 83% 68–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville State -4.1 137.2 34% 67–72 ✗
Portland @ Loyola Marymount +7.9 152.9 80% 60–79 ✓
San Diego @ Pepperdine +3.7 161.4 66% 87–78 ✗
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly -2.7 142.6 40% 70–52 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -0.1 131.4 48% 65–57 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield -5.3 133.3 30% 79–58 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -2.1 142.2 41% 61–62 ✗
Montana State @ Portland State -2.4 142.7 40% 75–66 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State +1.9 133.7 58% 48–67 ✓
Arizona State @ Washington -0.9 144.5 50% 66–69 ✗
Utah @ Oregon State -7.5 130.1 23% 63–44 ✓
Arizona @ Washington State -2.3 144.2 37% 63–58 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i -0.4 129.9 48% 65–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.