Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | RAD -110 LONG +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -3.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -2.7 (+1.3) | 133.5 (-11.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -0.9 (+3.1) | 129.6 (-7.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.4 (+1.6) | 134.2 (-12.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.2 (+1.8) | 133.9 (-11.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#140) | 1.9 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#208) | 0.16 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#202) | 0.07 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#193) | 0.506 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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