Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | W&M -175 STBK +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -6.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -2.5 (+0.5) | 131.8 (+19.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -3.6 (-0.6) | 132.2 (+18.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -3.9 (-0.9) | 132.7 (+18.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -3.9 (-0.9) | 131.6 (+19.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | W&M 76 – 57 STBK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | W&M 83 – 76 STBK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STBK 75 – 62 W&M |
| Jan 13, 2024 | STBK 63 – 59 W&M |
| Feb 17, 2023 | STBK 71 – 66 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#295) | -9.8 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#266) | -1.31 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#282) | -1.84 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#241) | 0.438 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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