Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | W&M -750 STBK +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -15.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -10.9 (+8.1) | 145.8 (-12.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -12.0 (+7.0) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -12.3 (+6.7) | 145.7 (-12.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -11.0 (+8.0) | 144.3 (-11.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | W&M 83 – 76 STBK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STBK 75 – 62 W&M |
| Jan 13, 2024 | STBK 63 – 59 W&M |
| Feb 17, 2023 | STBK 71 – 66 W&M |
| Jan 27, 2023 | W&M 77 – 74 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#93) | -4.7 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#69) | -0.56 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#76) | -1.35 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#53) | 0.457 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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