Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | STBK -350 W&M +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -9.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -9.6 (+3.4) | 144.4 (-7.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -7.1 (+5.9) | 143.1 (-6.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -8.5 (+4.5) | 143.7 (-6.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -7.8 (+5.2) | 144.4 (-7.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | W&M 76 – 57 STBK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | W&M 83 – 76 STBK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | STBK 63 – 59 W&M |
| Feb 17, 2023 | STBK 71 – 66 W&M |
| Jan 27, 2023 | W&M 77 – 74 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#220) | -9.6 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#184) | -2.11 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#172) | -2.42 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#188) | 0.390 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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