Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -275 TNST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +17 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -7.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -5.4 (+11.6) | 154.3 (+12.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -5.4 (+11.6) | 152.8 (+14.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -5.8 (+11.2) | 151.2 (+15.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -5.9 (+11.1) | 153.0 (+14.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#244) | -8.2 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#242) | -1.83 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#251) | -2.47 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#216) | 0.391 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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