Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UIW +130 MCN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -1.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -1.0 (+4.0) | 142.2 (-7.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -0.9 (+4.1) | 140.1 (-5.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -1.2 (+3.8) | 143.9 (-8.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -0.9 (+4.1) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MCN 81 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 2, 2025 | UIW 71 – 67 MCN |
| Feb 4, 2025 | MCN 67 – 65 UIW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MCN 87 – 71 UIW |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MCN 80 – 66 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#349) | -10.2 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#331) | -2.11 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#337) | -2.72 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#349) | 0.447 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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