Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MICH +163 PUR -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -5.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.0 (-1.0) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.8 (-1.2) | 138.5 (+6.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.0 (-0.0) | 136.5 (+8.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -3.8 (-1.2) | 135.4 (+9.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#72) | 16.4 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#75) | 4.05 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#59) | 5.86 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#83) | 0.650 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 11.6% |
Game Analysis
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