Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -125 UCSB +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -1.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.6 (-1.6) | 128.4 (+0.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -0.9 (-1.9) | 129.4 (-0.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -0.4 (-0.6) | 129.9 (-0.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.0 (-1.0) | 131.2 (-2.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#124) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#113) | 1.21 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#104) | 1.56 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#154) | 0.527 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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