Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PRST +210 MTST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -2.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.9 (-6.1) | 143.8 (-2.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.3 (-4.7) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -2.4 (-6.6) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.6 (-6.4) | 143.3 (-2.3) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-9 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#224) | 3.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#197) | 0.35 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#206) | 0.55 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#196) | 0.523 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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