Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -1000 HCU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -17.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -14.5 (+4.5) | 152.3 (-7.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -13.6 (+5.4) | 154.4 (-9.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -13.2 (+5.8) | 154.8 (-9.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -13.6 (+5.4) | 155.1 (-10.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 10-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 85.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | -15.1 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#143) | -2.30 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#192) | -2.84 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#125) | 0.385 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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