Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | MSM +130 FAIR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -1.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.4 (-2.6) | 127.4 (-4.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -0.4 (-2.6) | 126.1 (-3.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.4 (-2.6) | 127.7 (-4.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.2 (-2.8) | 128.5 (-5.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSM 69 – 47 FAIR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 62 MSM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MSM 101 – 94 FAIR |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAIR 96 – 92 MSM |
| Feb 18, 2024 | FAIR 94 – 80 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#263) | -3.6 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#300) | -0.83 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#297) | -1.11 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#304) | 0.473 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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