Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UL -175 TROY +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UL -3.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -3.9 (+11.1) | 143.5 (-14.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -3.0 (+12.0) | 141.4 (-12.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -3.4 (+11.6) | 143.9 (-14.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -3.7 (+11.3) | 143.4 (-14.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 4.2 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#70) | 0.21 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#66) | 0.52 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#55) | 0.516 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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