Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -1200 SMU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +15 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -14.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -12.9 (+2.1) | 150.9 (+32.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -11.8 (+3.2) | 152.7 (+30.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -12.3 (+2.7) | 152.7 (+30.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -13.1 (+1.9) | 151.3 (+31.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | SMU 106 – 79 MEM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MEM 62 – 59 SMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MEM 81 – 62 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 70 – 63 SMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | SMU 73 – 57 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#44) | -1.3 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#34) | -0.56 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#30) | -0.25 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#22) | 0.495 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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