Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SMU +115 MEM -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -0.2 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.1 (+14.9) | 146.2 (-16.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.1 (+14.9) | 144.0 (-14.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.0 (+15.0) | 145.0 (-15.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.2 (+14.8) | 147.0 (-17.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | SMU 106 – 79 MEM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MEM 62 – 59 SMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MEM 81 – 62 SMU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MEM 99 – 84 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 70 – 63 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#59) | 11.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#54) | 1.55 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#58) | 2.41 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#46) | 0.588 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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