Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -292 SMU +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -1.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.4 (-0.4) | 143.1 (-22.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -3.5 (-0.5) | 145.7 (-24.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.5 (+0.5) | 141.8 (-20.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -3.1 (-0.1) | 143.5 (-22.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | SMU 106 – 79 MEM |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MEM 81 – 62 SMU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MEM 99 – 84 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 70 – 63 SMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | SMU 73 – 57 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#55) | 11.8 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#12) | 1.27 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#20) | 1.95 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.660 (#8) | 0.538 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 40.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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