Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -225 MEM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +27 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -8.0 (+19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -7.1 (+19.9) | 149.9 (+35.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -5.6 (+21.4) | 154.1 (+30.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -6.8 (+20.2) | 151.1 (+33.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -6.8 (+20.2) | 151.2 (+33.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2024 | MEM 62 – 59 SMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MEM 81 – 62 SMU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MEM 99 – 84 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 70 – 63 SMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | SMU 73 – 57 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#41) | 7.1 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#74) | 1.65 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#60) | 2.13 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#77) | 0.577 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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