SMU
Mustangs
63
–
70
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
Memphis
Tigers
Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -2.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -1.9 (-5.1) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.4 (-4.6) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -1.5 (-5.5) | 142.5 (-9.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -1.8 (-5.2) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | SMU 106 – 79 MEM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MEM 62 – 59 SMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MEM 81 – 62 SMU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MEM 99 – 84 SMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | SMU 73 – 57 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#55) | 12.2 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#48) | 1.67 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#53) | 2.45 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#45) | 0.581 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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