Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | STMN +100 SDST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +6 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -2.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -1.2 (+4.8) | 141.8 (-27.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -0.0 (+6.0) | 138.9 (-24.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -0.6 (+5.4) | 141.6 (-27.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.8 (+5.2) | 142.6 (-28.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#197) | -0.5 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#186) | 0.44 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#210) | 0.13 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#201) | 0.547 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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