Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UNA +150 JAX -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -3.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -3.6 (+21.6) | 135.2 (+6.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -2.6 (+20.6) | 136.9 (+5.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -2.4 (+20.4) | 136.8 (+5.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -2.3 (+20.3) | 135.0 (+7.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JAX 90 – 68 UNA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNA 78 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNA 92 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JAX 64 – 60 UNA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JAX 67 – 63 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#308) | -1.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#225) | 0.45 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#268) | 0.46 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#228) | 0.545 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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