Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +100 UNA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -0.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.6 (+3.4) | 141.0 (-17.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -1.5 (+2.5) | 143.1 (-19.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -0.9 (+3.1) | 143.6 (-19.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -1.3 (+2.7) | 142.4 (-18.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JAX 90 – 68 UNA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNA 78 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNA 92 – 79 JAX |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JAX 67 – 63 UNA |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNA 80 – 62 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#168) | 2.2 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#153) | -0.13 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#121) | -0.10 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#128) | 0.479 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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