Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -215 JAX +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +13 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -6.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -5.2 (+7.8) | 143.8 (+27.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -4.9 (+8.1) | 142.6 (+28.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -6.2 (+6.8) | 143.2 (+27.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -5.5 (+7.5) | 143.7 (+27.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JAX 90 – 68 UNA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNA 78 – 63 JAX |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JAX 64 – 60 UNA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JAX 67 – 63 UNA |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNA 80 – 62 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#124) | -0.6 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | 0.18 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#148) | 0.46 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#153) | 0.518 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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