Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNA -290 JAX +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -7.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -6.1 (+8.9) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -7.5 (+7.5) | 141.6 (-0.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -6.7 (+8.3) | 142.9 (-1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -6.8 (+8.2) | 141.2 (-0.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JAX 90 – 68 UNA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNA 92 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JAX 64 – 60 UNA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JAX 67 – 63 UNA |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNA 80 – 62 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#116) | -1.4 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#139) | 0.02 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#141) | 0.17 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#126) | 0.522 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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