Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -130 JAX +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +22 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UNA -2.5 (-24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -0.4 (-22.4) | 132.8 (+25.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -1.0 (-23.0) | 131.4 (+26.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -0.4 (-22.4) | 132.7 (+25.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -0.6 (-22.6) | 132.4 (+25.6) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNA 78 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNA 92 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JAX 64 – 60 UNA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JAX 67 – 63 UNA |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNA 80 – 62 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#317) | -9.3 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#317) | -1.31 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#321) | -1.82 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#330) | 0.453 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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