Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +110 UNA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -0.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -0.4 (+4.4) | 143.5 (-13.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.1 (+3.9) | 141.3 (-11.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -0.4 (+3.6) | 143.6 (-13.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -0.1 (+4.1) | 144.5 (-14.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JAX 90 – 68 UNA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNA 78 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNA 92 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JAX 64 – 60 UNA |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNA 80 – 62 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#303) | -4.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#270) | -0.59 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#273) | -0.71 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#269) | 0.466 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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