Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +140 UNF -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +3 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -1.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -1.3 (+4.3) | 157.7 (+15.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -1.1 (+4.1) | 158.3 (+14.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -1.4 (+4.4) | 156.9 (+16.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -1.4 (+4.4) | 158.8 (+14.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | CARK 98 – 69 UNF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CARK 84 – 83 UNF |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UNF 92 – 80 CARK |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CARK 79 – 77 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNF 93 – 74 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#342) | -7.0 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#315) | -0.60 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#327) | -1.05 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#300) | 0.484 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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