Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +320 UNF -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +1 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -3.4 (+4.4) | 158.0 (+9.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -3.5 (+4.5) | 164.0 (+3.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -4.2 (+5.2) | 159.2 (+7.8) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -5.0 (+6.0) | 157.4 (+9.6) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | CARK 98 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UNF 92 – 80 CARK |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CARK 79 – 77 UNF |
| Jan 27, 2023 | CARK 88 – 85 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNF 93 – 74 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-16 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#347) | -5.5 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#354) | -0.36 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.48 (#356) | -0.65 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#356) | 0.488 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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