Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UNF -1000 CARK +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +12 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -11.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -8.1 (+3.9) | 162.1 (+9.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -8.9 (+3.1) | 161.7 (+10.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -9.0 (+3.0) | 158.6 (+13.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -9.3 (+2.7) | 160.7 (+11.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | CARK 98 – 69 UNF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CARK 84 – 83 UNF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CARK 79 – 77 UNF |
| Jan 27, 2023 | CARK 88 – 85 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNF 93 – 74 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-10 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#241) | -12.0 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#203) | -2.96 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#206) | -3.55 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#185) | 0.353 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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