Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -800 UNF +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +29 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -12.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -10.4 (+18.6) | 156.6 (+10.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -9.7 (+19.3) | 159.5 (+7.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -10.6 (+18.4) | 156.0 (+11.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -10.1 (+18.9) | 157.2 (+9.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | CARK 84 – 83 UNF |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UNF 92 – 80 CARK |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CARK 79 – 77 UNF |
| Jan 27, 2023 | CARK 88 – 85 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNF 93 – 74 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 89.6 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#224) | -12.7 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#273) | -2.77 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#270) | -3.32 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#277) | 0.426 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 58.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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