Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -163 IOWA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -1.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.4 (-0.4) | 142.7 (-18.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.9 (-0.9) | 147.6 (-23.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.9 (+0.1) | 150.7 (-26.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.0 (+0.0) | 148.9 (-24.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MSU 71 – 52 IOWA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MSU 91 – 84 IOWA |
| Feb 21, 2024 | IOWA 78 – 71 MSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | IOWA 112 – 106 MSU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | IOWA 86 – 60 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#47) | 11.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#35) | 1.76 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#36) | 2.29 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#28) | 0.563 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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