Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -500 IOWA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -8.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -9.0 (-16.0) | 150.5 (-1.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -8.5 (-15.5) | 146.5 (+2.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -8.4 (-15.4) | 149.2 (-0.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -8.4 (-15.4) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MSU 71 – 52 IOWA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MSU 91 – 84 IOWA |
| Feb 25, 2023 | IOWA 112 – 106 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MSU 63 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | IOWA 86 – 60 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#16) | 10.5 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#44) | 1.34 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#30) | 1.84 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#38) | 0.541 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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