Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -250 MSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +6 | 218 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -3.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+69.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -2.5 (+3.5) | 147.0 (+71.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -3.1 (+2.9) | 144.9 (+73.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -2.7 (+3.3) | 145.8 (+72.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -2.6 (+3.4) | 146.7 (+71.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MSU 71 – 52 IOWA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MSU 91 – 84 IOWA |
| Feb 21, 2024 | IOWA 78 – 71 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MSU 63 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | IOWA 86 – 60 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 11.0 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#50) | 2.07 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#50) | 2.57 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#75) | 0.585 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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