Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -250 IOWA +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +19 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -7.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.6 (+12.4) | 134.8 (-11.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -7.4 (+11.6) | 130.9 (-7.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.8 (+12.2) | 134.4 (-11.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -7.0 (+12.0) | 134.2 (-11.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | MSU 91 – 84 IOWA |
| Feb 21, 2024 | IOWA 78 – 71 MSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | IOWA 112 – 106 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MSU 63 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | IOWA 86 – 60 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#19) | 14.5 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#7) | 2.55 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.79 (#5) | 3.94 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#6) | 0.605 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 60.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 41.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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