Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA +250 MSU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +7 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -6.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -5.5 (-1.5) | 153.2 (+21.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -5.7 (-1.3) | 153.9 (+21.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.3 (-0.7) | 148.9 (+26.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -5.4 (-1.6) | 152.6 (+22.4) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MSU 71 – 52 IOWA |
| Feb 21, 2024 | IOWA 78 – 71 MSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | IOWA 112 – 106 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MSU 63 – 61 IOWA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | IOWA 86 – 60 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#63) | 18.8 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#72) | 3.41 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#64) | 4.37 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#148) | 0.637 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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