Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -265 MSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -5.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -6.0 (+20.0) | 152.2 (-6.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -6.0 (+20.0) | 152.5 (-6.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -6.0 (+20.0) | 155.7 (-9.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.7 (+20.3) | 156.0 (-10.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MSU 71 – 52 IOWA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MSU 91 – 84 IOWA |
| Feb 21, 2024 | IOWA 78 – 71 MSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | IOWA 112 – 106 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MSU 63 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#17) | 12.3 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#38) | 2.44 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#33) | 3.04 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#57) | 0.591 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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