Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -163 USD +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +9 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -5.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -1.9 (-10.9) | 161.0 (+4.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -2.4 (-11.4) | 156.3 (+8.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -3.7 (-12.7) | 161.4 (+3.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -3.7 (-12.7) | 162.6 (+2.4) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 4-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-9 |
| Away | 0-12 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#170) | -2.1 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#246) | -0.66 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#203) | -0.45 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#222) | 0.464 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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