Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -188 SFPA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -4.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -2.6 (+2.4) | 155.8 (+13.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -3.7 (+1.3) | 154.3 (+14.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -1.4 (+3.6) | 154.7 (+14.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -2.4 (+2.6) | 156.1 (+12.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#315) | -8.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#290) | -1.65 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#292) | -2.17 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#303) | 0.420 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.