Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | USC +163 UCLA -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -6.9 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -3.6 (+16.6) | 135.6 (+5.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -3.1 (+16.1) | 132.0 (+9.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -4.0 (+17.0) | 134.7 (+6.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -4.0 (+17.0) | 134.2 (+6.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 60.7 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#55) | 19.5 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#47) | 2.98 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#54) | 3.66 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#34) | 0.645 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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